Adam Sieminski, global energy economist for Deutsche Bank, said, "The oil supply slowdown in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the former Soviet Union is leaving OPEC in charge. Global oil supplies are under pressure from shrinking production prospects in Russia and across a wide swath of the OECD nations. By definition, demand equals supply, and although we think that demand is rising despite the economic slowdown, supply is struggling to keep up."

Energy conservation in the US and the OECD has not been sufficient to offset demand increases in other parts of the world. Global demand for oil grew by 1.1 million b/d in 2007, while the average of the four estimates for 2008 growth is 1.2 million b/d, according to Deutsche Bank.

"The world has been depending on supply growth from the FSU and other non-OECD countries. Russian production growth has tapered off, biofuel growth is likely to be under pressure from rising concerns about food and environmental impacts, and continuing declines are expected in the OECD," said Sieminski. "Based upon the average estimates we have used here, non-OPEC Africa and Latin America offer some hope for oil supply growth, but not enough to offset the likely rising dependence on OPEC."