The IEA attributed this 1.3 percent rise to strong U.S. oil consumption post-recession. The agency also anticipated that Iranian exports could bounce back. On Nov. 24, six countries and Iran made an agreement that in exchange for Tehran reducing the size of its nuclear program, international restrictions will be relaxed partially, according to The Wall Street Journal. For November, Iran oil production rose 89,000 bpd to 850,000 bpd with shipments to China and Taiwan.
The IEA said Iran withdrew 15 million barrels of oil out of storage and oil production jumped to 2.71 million bpd in the past two months, according to tanker data.
Despite this prediction of Iranian oil exports potentially challenging other oil producers, the IEA said it does not expect Iran to flood the market because the pact in November caps Iranian crude exports to 1 million barrels.
"Meaningful increases in production would require a longer period and additional investment in Iran's upstream, and thus would take time to materialize," the IEA said.