A Senior Moment

1/01/09 — Happy New Year?

Was it only the past summer when oil price pushed $150/bbl? And did we really have to pay over $4.00/gal for our gasoline? Were we seriously contemplating changing our lifestyles to reflect such a high price world?

Much talk, pulling of hair and gnashing of teeth over these prices only enforced the observations in Step 1 of my report called the Anchoring Phenomena. The fear is that what goes on at that moment will go on forever.

Points to Ponder 

  • Now that we are seeing a significant price (over?) correction compounded by the current financial crisis, are we anchoring our plans (and hopes) on oil prices remaining below $50/bbl?
  • Do you still have your 8mpg SUV? Have you bought a high mileage at a discount from a struggling auto dealer further discounted by gasoline below $2.00?
  • How can society break away from the culture of today and see just how volatile energy prices have been, are and forever will be? Such a condition is the real world. Just another justification for looking at the future, be it tomorrow or over the next decade in terms of a range and plan for the extremes. This is the probabilistic approach advocated throughout my report.

Click here for more information about Confessions of an Energy Price Forecaster: A 12 Step Program to Enlightenment

Click here for John Tobin's full bio


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