F&S: Coal to remain dominant despite decline

A study by consultancy Frost & Sullivan predicts coal is set to generate nearly 34 per cent of global electricity in 2030, with investment driven by China and India.

Coal-fired power will remain in the lead in terms of power generation for this period even if seeing its share gradually eroded by other power sources.

"Although generation from all fuel sources apart from oil will increase, coal will remain the dominant source, accounting for nearly 26 percent of the installed capacity and almost 34 percent of generation in 2030," said Frost & Sullivan energy and environmental industry Director Harald Thaler.

Total global installed power generation capacity will reach 9266 GW by 2030, rising from 5640 GW this year.

While in steady decline in North America and Europe due to emissions regulations, investment in coal power by emerging nations means coal remains on top.
Frost & Sullivan
As emissions laws continue to kick in, gas-fired power generation will increase in importance across the globe, according to F&S.

Zero emission electricity sources, such as wind farms and solar arrays, will grow rapidly to account for 42 per cent of global power supplies in 2030.

The report argues that despite a massive increase in renewables capacity the share of zero-emission power will grow slowly because of relatively low capacity factors and continued investment in fossil fuel development. It predicts "carbon-free power" will achieve a 38 per cent share of the power mix in 2020, up from 32 per cent in 2012, and will rise to 42 per cent by 2030.

The analysis also predicts a continued boom in shale gas development in North America, and a growth of fracking in the Middle East and China will help to lower emissions from the energy sector over the coming decades by replacing coal with gas power.



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