Natural gas and renewable energy generating sources are expected to meet all of the increase of electricity use between 2013 and 2040, according to a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In the reference case of the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2015, electricity consumption is expected to increase at less than one percent each year in the same timeframe, nearly in line with population growth. Renewables provided 13 percent of U.S. electricity in 2013, and that amount is expected to increase to 18 percent by 2040 in the reference case, which reflects current laws and regulations but not pending rules.
Wind and solar account for nearly two-thirds of growth in renewable generation, the report said. Wind is expected to become the single largest source of renewable generation by 2040.
Natural gas-fired generation’s share of total generation is expected to increase from 27 percent in 2013 to 31 percent in 2040, while the coal share decreases from 39 percent in 2013 to 34 percent in 2040. Nuclear’s share drops from 19 percent to 16 percent over the same time period. Natural gas-fired generation and renewable generation are both dependent on natural gas prices due to competition with existing coal and renewables.
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