Grid operator Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said the region will have sufficient electric generation available for expected peak demand in the upcoming spring and summer.
ERCOT’s Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for the spring shows more than 76,600 MW to serve an expected 62,000 MW of peak demand. The forecast is based on average weather conditions seen during the previous 12-year period and typical seasonal outages experienced since December 2010. It assumes the highest demand will occur in late May, following completion of most of the routine power plant maintenance that occurs during spring to meet summer demand.
A preliminary summer SARA estimates summer peak demand of about 69,000 MW based on 12-year average weather. Peak demand in 2014, considered a mild summer for Texas, reached 66,454 MW on Aug. 25. ERCOT currently estimates nearly 77,000 MW of available generation for this summer’s peak.
Available operating reserves under the current scenarios could range from more than 5,000 MW based on the current forecast and typical outage rates, to less then 500 MW under a scenario in which demand exceeds the forecast by about 2,300 MW at the same time that outages exceed the historical average by more than 2,400 MW, similar to extreme conditions ERCOT experienced in summer 2011.
To read these and other ERCOT reports, click here.
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