The future of the Texas electric market will very likely include substantial amounts of renewable energy and gas-fired power, economists with The Brattle Group stated in a report prepared for the Texas Clean Energy Commission (TCEC).
The report, “Exploring Natural Gas and Renewables in ERCOT, Part II: Future Generation Scenarios for Texas,” uses modeling in multiple scenarios, including a range of natural gas prices, a required reserve margin and different wind and solar energy costs, to simulate the Electric Reliability Council of Texas system through 2032.
Under the scenarios, natural gas and renewables will both play substantial roles in ERCOT, according to a statement from TCEC. In the more likely scenarios, wind and solar power sources grow from a current 10 percent generation to share to between 25 percent and 43 percent of the generation. Natural gas-fired generation provides remaining generation, adding 12 GW to 25 GW of combined-cycle capacity.
No new coal plants would be built in any of the scenarios, according to TCEC.
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