According to new research by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, more than 15 percent of total energy production will come from renewable sources in 20 years. This projection includes large hydro, and shows an increase from the 12.6 percent global renewable energy production in 2010.
The annual value of renewable energy capacity installed is projected to double in real terms to $395 billion in 2020 and $460 billion in 2030, compared with $195 billion in 2010, according to the analysis.
Europe is expected to remain one of the biggest markets for money spent on renewable energy projects for the next three years, but with a dwindling share of world investment as European Union governments scale back clean energy support in the face of sovereign debt problems. Growth in the European market will resume post 2015 as investment scales up to meet the EU 2020 renewable energy target.
The analysis projects that China will take over the lead in renewable energy asset finance from Europe in 2014, with an annual investment of just under $50 billion. The U.S. and Canada are also expected to see no lasting slowdown in project construction, together hitting $50 billion of investment in 2020.
The Bloomberg analysis predicts the most rapid growth to come from the developing economies of India, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, with projected growth rates of 10 to 18 percent per year over the period 2010 to 2020.
With regard to technologies, cost reductions will spur deployment of solar power, which will see the second-fastest percentage growth of all technologies, after offshore wind, from 51 GW in 2010 to 1,137 GW by 2030. This will require an annual capital average of $130 billion from 2010 to 2030, compared with $86 billion in 2010.
The offshore and onshore wind sector will continue to expand, with $140 billion in investments in 2020 and $206 billion per annum by 2030. Over the next 20 years, a significant market will emerge in repowering projects in the U.S. and Europe as older turbines are replaced.
Read more on the research here.
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