MARKET WATCH: NYMEX crude oil prices gain slightly before US general election

Crude oil prices rose slightly on the New York market Nov. 8 as voters went to the polls for the general election. Results later showed a victory for Republication presidential candidate Donald Trump, which contradicted the forecast of pre-election polls.

Oil prices on both the New York and London markets were volatile in Nov. 9 trading. JP Morgan analysts told the Wall Street Journal that they expect Brent crude oil could trade at $43/bbl within a week of a Trump win. Brent crude for January delivery closed at slightly above $46/bbl on Nov. 8.

S&P Global Platts reported early Nov. 9 that it’s impossible to determine what role the administration of President-elect Donald Trump might play on the US oil supply because of various shifting factors, particularly oil prices.

The gross domestic product drives oil demand, said Stewart Glickman, head of energy equity research for S&P Global Market Intelligence. GDP likely will be defined by economic factors. If GDP goes up, US drivers likely will increase driving, triggering increased demand, Glickman added.

In its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, the US Energy Information Administration increased its expectations of US oil production for 2016-17. The EIA forecast production will average 8.84 million b/d for 2016 and 8.73 million b/d for 2017. That compared with the agency’s earlier forecasts of 8.73 million b/d in 2016 and 8.59 million b/d in 2017.

Energy prices

The December crude oil contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange gained 9¢ on Nov. 8 to close at $44.98/bbl. The January contract gained 14¢ to $45.61/bbl.

The natural gas contract for December fell 18¢ to a rounded $2.63/MMbtu. On the spot market, the Henry Hub gas price dropped 1¢ to $2.32/MMbtu.

Heating oil for December gained less than a penny to remain at $1.44/gal. The price for reformulated gasoline stock for oxygenates blending for December dropped less than a penny to remain at a rounded $1.37/gal.

The January Brent contract on London’s ICE fell 11¢ to settle at $46.04/bbl. The Brent contract for February dropped 2¢ to $47.18/bbl. The November gas oil contract climbed $2 to $419.75/tonne.

The average price for OPEC’s basket of benchmark crudes on Nov. 8 was $42.22/bbl, up 24¢.

Contact Paula Dittrick at paulad@ogjonline.com.

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