Oil production in Ghana, growth of which slowed this year because of technical problems at giant offshore Jubilee field, will reach 350,000 b/d in 2018, predict researchers at the French investment management firm Natixis.
Jubilee output dropped to 62,900 b/d in the first half this year from 102,600 b/d in all of 2015 because of shutdown during March-April of the Kwame Nkrumah floating production, storage, and offloading vessel (OGJ Online, May 9, 2016).
In a research note, Natixis analysts Abhishek Deshpande and Cristina Peicuti say output is expected to rise to 85,000 b/d in this year’s second half.
Jubilee was closed when the FPSO’s turret bearing was found to be malfunctioning. Operator Tullow Oil PLC has implemented new loading procedures.
Jubilee production will be closed for 3 months in the first half of 2017 for subsea maintenance.
At that time, production by Tweneboa, Enyera, and Ntomme fields--developed together as the TEN project--will be climbing toward an expected peak of 80,000 b/d from this year’s average of about 23,000 b/d.
The TEN fields began production in August (OGJ Online, Aug. 18, 2016).
Deshpande and Peicuti say start-up of Sankofa gas-condensate field, further drilling in existing fields, and recovery improvement will boost average Ghanaian production to 220,000 b/d next year.
Ghana’s National Petroleum Corp. expects oil production to start at Sankofa field next year and gas flow to begin early in 2018. Sankofa has capacity to produce 185 MMscfd of gas.
The TEN project is expected to produce 80 MMscfd of gas for 20 years. Jubilee has capacity to produce 120 MMscfd of gas, although production is below that level because of the FPSO work.
Deshpande and Peicuti say they’re “optimistic” about Ghanaian oil and gas “as long as the TEN and Sankofa fields can reach their promising peak production figures and there are no significant unplanned outages in the Jubilee field.”