Although the agency’s oil production forecasts for 2016-17 still calls for a decline, EIA revised its forecasts upward slightly in the August STEO from its previous forecasts.
As of Aug. 9, EIA forecast US production will average 8.7 million b/d in 2016 and 8.3 million b/d in 2017. In both June and July, EIA forecast US oil production would average 8.6 million b/d in 2016 and 8.2 million b/d in 2017. Crude oil production averaged 9.4 million b/d in 2015.
“The forecast reflects declining Lower 48 onshore production that is partly offset by growing production in the federal Gulf of Mexico,” EIA said.
EIA said production is expected to fall most rapidly during April through September this year, declining by an average of 150,000 b/d each month, EIA said.
“Production is then expected to be relatively flat from October 2016 through July 2017, averaging 8.4 million b/d,” the STEO said.