Oil’s share of the global energy market will decline but remain dominant through 2040 as natural gas becomes the fastest-growing fossil fuel, predicts the US Energy Information Administration.
Among all sources, renewable energy will grow the fastest, EIA says in its International Energy Outlook 2016.
Global energy consumption will increase to 629 quadrillion btu (quads) in 2020 and 815 quads in 2040 from 549 quads in 2012.
Oil’s share will slip to 30% in 2040 from 33% in 2012, while coal’s share falls to 22% from 28%. Over that period, EIA says, the natural gas share will increase to 26% from 23%, and the renewable share will jump to 16% from 12%.
Those projections don’t account for the US Clean Power Plan, implementation of which would raise the renewable share of the 2040 energy market to 17% and slightly lower coal use but still leave the solid hydrocarbon’s share at 22%.
By 2014, EIA says, coal, natural gas, and renewable energy sources will provide 28-29% each of world generation of electrical power. In 2012, coal provided 40% of all power generation.
Asian countries outside the industrialized members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, including China and India, account for more than half the expected growth in energy use.
While consumption of renewable energy will grow by 2.6%/year—vs. the 1.4%/year projected for all energy—fossil fuels still will supply more than three quarters of global energy in 2040, EIA notes.
Emissions of carbon dioxide related to energy use will increase to 36 billion tonnes in 2020 and 43 billion tonnes in 2040 from 32 billion tonnes in 2012, according to the forecast.