EIA: US shale oil output to decline 91,000 b/d in July

Crude oil production in July from seven major US shale plays is expected to drop 91,000 b/d to 5.49 million b/d compared with June, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The forecasted decline is up 5,000 b/d compared with June’s decline from May (OGJ Online, May 12, 2015).

The DPR focuses on the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus, Niobrara, Permian, and Utica, which altogether accounted for 95% of US oil production increases and all US natural gas production increases during 2011-13.

The monthly decline will again be led by the Eagle Ford, whose expected 49,000-b/d drop to 1.59 million b/d is only 2,000 b/d higher than the previous month’s decline. Production from the Bakken is expected to fall 29,000 b/d, also up 2,000 b/d from June, to 1.24 million b/d. The Niobrara is expected to see a 17,000-b/d drop, up 1,000 b/d from June, to 414,000 b/d.

In the Permian, where production growth has been maintained over the course of the year although at a shrinking rate, EIA forecasts a 3,000-b/d increase to 2.06 million b/d. That rate is less than half of last month’s increase and only a seventh of April’s growth.

New-well oil production/rig across the seven plays will increase in July by a rig-weighted average of 15 b/d to 419 b/d, with a 23-b/d rise in the Bakken to 654 b/d, 22-b/d rise in the Eagle Ford to 741 b/d, 19-b/d rise in the Permian to 315 b/d, and 13-b/d rise in the Niobrara to 510 b/d.

Natural gas production across the plays is expected to drop 221 MMcfd during July to 45.65 bcfd, led by a 108-MMcfd decline in the Eagle Ford to 7.14 bcfd and 53-MMcfd decline in the Niobrara to 4.56 bcfd. EIA forecasts the Utica will be the only play to report an increase, gaining 42 MMcfd to 2.56 bcfd.

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