OPEC world oil outlook sees $95/bbl oil in 2040

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said the group was unlikely to reduce its production levels next year, but it does expect to cut production in future years. Regarding non-OPEC supply, the group expects US and Canadian liquids production to reach 19.8 million b/d in 2020.

The 19.8 million-b/d forecast calls for an increase of 2.5 million b/d compared with 2014 US-Canada production levels. OPEC forecast US-Canada tight oil production at 5.2 million b/d in 2020 compared with 2015 levels of 4.4 million b/d.

In the annual World Oil Outlook released Dec. 22, OPEC forecast the price for its basket of crudes will reach $70/bbl in 2020 and $95/bbl in 2040.

OPEC said it likely will cut its own production to 30.6 million b/d in 2019 compared with November production of 31.7 million b/d, which the group called its highest production level in 3 years.

“The supply and demand balance in 2015 has been one of oversupply with stock levels rising to well above the 5-year average,” the outlook said. “This past year has been a test for all producers and investors who have had to face up to the realities of a shifting global oil industry.”

On the demand side, OPEC sees world oil demand rising to 97.4 million b/d by 2020, marking an increase of 500,000 b/d from the previous outlook demand forecast. By 2040, the latest outlook forecasts oil demand at 110 million b/d.

“From the supply perspective, in last year’s WOO, non-OPEC liquids were expected to rise to 61.2 million b/d by 2020, whereas this year, the number has dropped by 1 million b/d to 60.2 million b/d. All this means that by 2020, the requirement for OPEC crude is anticipated to be at 30.7 million b/d, an increase of 1.7 million b/d from last year,” WOO said.

Oil-related investment requirements are estimated to be $10 trillion from 2015-40, WOO added.

“OPEC member countries maintain their readiness to invest in the development of new upstream capacity, in the maintenance of existing fields, and in the building and expansion of the necessary infrastructure,” WOO said.

Contact Paula Dittrick at paulad@ogjonline.com.

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