EIA: US shale oil output to drop 93,000 b/d in November

Crude oil production in November from seven major US shale plays is expected to drop 93,000 b/d to 5.12 million b/d, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). That’s back up to the same level forecast for September after a somewhat smaller decline was projected for October (OGJ Online, Sept. 14, 2015).

The DPR focuses on the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus, Niobrara, Permian, and Utica, which altogether accounted for 95% of US oil production increases and all US natural gas production increases during 2011-13.

Continuing a trend that has persisted since the overall declines began in spring, the Eagle Ford is expected to make up a bulk of the drop, losing 71,000 b/d to 1.37 million b/d. The Bakken is projected to fall 23,000 b/d to 1.16 million b/d and the Niobrara is projected to fall 20,000 b/d to 372,000 b/d.

The Permian will continue its growth in November, EIA forecasts, with a 21,000-b/d rise to 2.03 million b/d.

New-well oil production/rig across the seven plays is expected to be flat at a rig-weighted average of 465 b/d in November. Notable increases include the Niobrara, up 13 to 616 b/d; and the Utica, up 12 to 260 b/d.

Natural gas production from the plays in November is forecast to fall 294 MMcfd to 44.88 bcfd. The DPR shows the Marcellus leading the way with a bulk of the decline, giving up 215 MMcfd during the month to 15.89 bcfd, followed by the Eagle Ford losing 135 MMcfd to 6.72 bcfd, and Niobrara losing 55 MMcfd to 4.27 bcfd.

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