Eagle Ford wells brought online are expected to fall to around 2,700 from 4,000 in 2014, according to analyst group Wood Mackenzie Ltd. The company’s most recent analysis cites that production growth is slow in the near term, but the full effect of lower oil prices is moderated by improved recoveries in core areas.
The Eagle Ford is expected to produce 2 million b/d of oil and condensate by 2020, the report said. The company divided the play into nine subplays, three of which account for about 75% of the Eagle Ford’s remaining NPV10 reserves. The Karnes Trough, Edwards Condensate, and Black Oil subplays are predicted to grow an average of 10% in 2015, the company said.
The study highlighted the Karnes Trough as having one of the lowest breakevens in the Lower 48 at $42/bbl. Year-on-year, NPV is up $27 billion due to well performance improvements as well as derisking of acreage.
Spending cuts have impacted all shale plays in the US, however, the Eagle Ford is expected to attract $20 billion in development costs in 2015.
While the long term appears beneficial, Texas has seen a decline in the rig count this week after four straight of increases (OGJ Online, Aug. 21, 2015). The Permian and Eagle Ford dropped 2 units apiece to 253 and 99, respectively.