EIA: US shale oil output to drop 93,000 b/d in September

Crude oil production in September from seven major US shale plays is expected to decline 93,000 b/d to 5.27 million b/d, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). EIA previously projected 91,000-b/d declines for both July and August (OGJ Online, June 9, 2015; July 13, 2015).

The DPR focuses on the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus, Niobrara, Permian, and Utica, which altogether accounted for 95% of US oil production increases and all US natural gas production increases during 2011-13.

The Eagle Ford continues to represent a bulk of the overall oil output declines, projected to fall 56,000 b/d in September to 1.48 million b/d. The Bakken is expected to fall 27,000 b/d to 1.16 million b/d, and the Niobrara is expected to fall 18,000 b/d to 399,000 b/d.

In the Permian, meanwhile, EIA projects a larger increase for September than it projected for August, forecasting a September rise of 8,000 b/d to 2.04 million b/d.

New-well oil production/rig across the seven plays is projected to increase in September by a rig-weighted average of merely 1 b/d to 434 b/d. The Eagle Ford also led the way at 26 b/d to 792 b/d, followed by the Niobrara at 15 b/d to 561 b/d, Utica at 10 b/d to 281 b/d, Permian at 6 b/d to 333 b/d, and Bakken at 4 b/d to 692.

Each of the seven plays is forecast to see a decline in natural gas production during September, collectively dropping 261 MMcfd to 44.9 bcfd. The Eagle Ford is again expected to take the steepest dive, relinquishing 112 MMcfd to 6.86 bcfd. The Marcellus is expected to fall 60 MMcfd to 16.37 bcfd.  

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