Most oil exporting countries will run fiscal deficits this year if the crude price averages $57/bbl as currently indicated by markets, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The main exception is Kuwait, IMF said in an update to its Regional Economic Outlook, which projects fiscal balances as percentages of each country’s gross domestic product. Kuwait’s fiscal surplus this year will fall to 11.1% of GDP from 21.9% last year, according to IMF.
The only other oil exporters not expected to show deficits this year in IMF’s analysis are Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Among major oil exporters, Saudi Arabia faces a deficit of 10.1% of GDP in 2015 after a surplus of 1.1% in 2014.
For other major exporters, IMF projects deficits this year relative to GDP of 3.7% for the United Arab Emirates, 3.4% for Iran, 6.1% for Iraq, 37.1% for Libya, 1.5% for Qatar, 15.1% for Algeria, 14.5% for Azerbaijan, and 2.3% for Kazakhstan.
IMF projects total oil export revenue losses this year of $300 billion among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
Among non-GCC exporters Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen, 2015 revenue losses will total about $90 billion.
And Caucasus and Central Asian exporters Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan will have revenue losses totaling $35 billion, IMF projects.