Despite low crude oil prices, new US shale-gas-derived chemical expansions continue to move forward, and more than 100 million metric tons (MMT) of new capacity will be added in the US chemical industry by 2025. Much of that new capacity will be converted to plastics, significantly increasing the US net export position for these materials, according to new research from IHS (NYSE: IHS).
Major US chemical production additions include ethylene, propylene, methanol, ammonia, and their derivatives, such as plastics and fertilizer. New domestic fertilizer production will replace imports from South America, the Black Sea, and the Middle East. The US shale gas impact on liquid bulk chemicals is less pronounced than for solids but still significant, according to the research, titled “IHS Chemical US Bulk Chemical Export Expansion Analysis.”
Recent production additions have resulted in a 10-MMT increase in bulk liquid chemicals in the last year, and, by 2025, US bulk liquid chemical additions will expand by more than 25 MMT, IHS Chemical said. The most notable bulk liquid chemical additions will be in methanol.
“Chemical producers are clearly looking to take advantage of continued low natural gas prices in the US, which is enabling the significant expansion of these methane-based projects,” said Chris Geisler, director, chemical consulting, at IHS Chemical and author of the analysis. “With so many projects coming online, this phenomenal growth is changing the global trade landscape. Currently, the US is a major importer of methanol, but, by 2018, the US will be a major net exporter of methanol, which is a significant shift for the US industry.”
The vast majority of new olefin chemical production will be converted to solid plastic resins and exported, according to the IHS analysis. With the exceptions of the ammonia and fertilizer production chains, the vast majority of expansion will be centered in Texas and Louisiana. Within Texas, firm capacity additions stretch from Beaumont to Corpus Christi, including several within the Houston Ship Channel.
“Solid fertilizer and plastics trade will change substantially in the US, as well as bulk liquids trade for products such as caustic soda, methanol and ethylene glycol,” Geisler said. “This capacity expansion means there will be significant uptick in chemical trade activity and logistics considerations for not only producers and traders, but also for the key ports, terminals and logistics providers, primarily on the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast. As these chemical products expand, we expect to see increased marine, rail and truck traffic, primarily in the US Gulf Coast, but, possibly later, that activity will expand to several of the East and West Coast ports and terminals.”
“Base aromatics (benzene, toluene, xylenes) have not benefitted from the shale gas developments, but aromatic derivatives, particularly styrene, have benefitted,” said Peter Feng, director of aromatics at IHS Chemical. “Tight oil and shale gas have impacted the outlook for naphtha and octane, and, unlike some of the other petrochemicals, there are only a limited number of expansion plans for North American aromatics.”
The impact on trade flows, Feng said, has been quite pronounced. “North America will be a growing net importer of benzene and the region has flipped from being a net exporter of toluene, mixed xylene and paraxylene, to a net importer. From a logistics perspective, this will be important, as ships transporting shale-gas-advantaged production like methanol out of the region will need products to bring back into North America as well.”
Low US gas prices are driving lower electricity prices, the IHS report said, which will likely incentivize US operators in the chlor-alkali chain to increase operating rates in the near term and to expand long term. This will result in more caustic soda production as a chlorine co-product.
Methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), although no longer used in the US gasoline pool, is expected to see expanded export potential, IHS said. Finally, ethylene glycol production will increase in the longer term, moving the US from a net importer to a net exporter of this product. As other methanol, ethylene, and propylene liquid derivatives are built, trade in bulk liquid chemicals will increase further, IHS said.
Through the study period of 2025, IHS Chemical expects capacity expansion in alpha olefins, ethoxylates, glycol ethers, MTBE, acetic acid, and acrylic acid, among others. IHS Chemical is expanding on its report on bulk liquid chemicals to include plastics and fertilizers. The new expanded study, the “IHS Chemical US Chemical Industry Trade and Logistics in the Shale Gas Era Report,” will be available in second-quarter 2016.
These market realities will also drive much of the conversation during the IHS Chemical 31st Annual World Petrochemical Conference (WPC) and Workshops, March 15–18, in Houston, Texas.