IEA expects global oil demand growth to slow from five-year high

Global demand growth is expected to slow from its five-year high of 1.8 mb/d in 2015 to 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2016 – closer toward its long-term trend as previous price support is likely to wane, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) Oil Market Report for October. Recent downgrades to the macroeconomic outlook are also filtering through.

World oil supply held steady near 96.6 mb/d in September, as lower non-OPEC production was offset by a slight increase in OPEC crude.

Non-OPEC accounted for just under 40% of the 1.8 mb/d annual increase in total oil output. Lower oil prices and steep spending curbs are expected to cut non-OPEC output by nearly 0.5 mb/d in 2016.

OPEC crude supply rose by 90 0000 barrels per day (90 kb/d) in September to 31.72 mb/d as record Iraqi output more than offset a dip in Saudi supply. A slowdown in forecast demand growth and slightly higher non-OPEC supply lowers the 2016 “call” on OPEC by 0.2 mb/d from last month’s Oil Market Report to 31.1 mb/d.

OECD commercial inventories extended recent gains and rose by 28.8 mb in August to stand at 2 943 mb by end-month. Since this was nearly double the 15.0 mb five-year average build for the month, inventories’ surplus to average levels widened to 204 mb.

The onset of seasonal turnarounds in the OECD and the Former Soviet Union is estimated to have curbed global refinery runs by 1.9 mb/d in September to 79.4 mb/d. Runs remained remarkably strong, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, leaving global throughputs up nearly 2 mb/d from a year ago.

Did You Like this Article? Get All the Energy Industry News Delivered to Your Inbox

Subscribe to an email newsletter today at no cost and receive the latest news and information.

 Subscribe Now


Making DDoS Mitigation Part of Your Incident Response Plan: Critical Steps and Best Practices

Like a new virulent strain of flu, the impact of a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack is...

The Multi-Tax Challenge of Managing Excise Tax and Sales Tax

To be able to accurately calculate multiple tax types, companies must be prepared to continually ...

Operational Analytics in the Power Industry

Cloud computing, smart grids, and other technologies are changing transmission and distribution. ...

Maximizing Operational Excellence

In a recent survey conducted by PennEnergy Research, 70% of surveyed energy industry professional...