IEA releases December Oil Market Report

International Energy Agency

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) Oil Market Report (OMR) for December cut the outlook for 2015 global oil demand growth by 230,000 barrels per day (230 kb/d) to 0.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) on lower expectations for the Former Soviet Union and other oil‐exporting countries.

The monthly report told subscribers that a strong dollar and the lifting of subsidies have so far limited supportive price effects on demand, which is now seen reaching 93.3 mb/d next year, from 92.4 mb/d in 2014.

Global production fell by 340 kb/d in November to 94.1 mb/d on lower OPEC supplies. Annual gains of 2.1 mb/d were split evenly between OPEC and non‐OPEC producers. Surging US light tight oil supply looks set to push total non‐OPEC output to record growth of 1.9 mb/d for 2014, but the pace is expected to slow to 1.3 mb/d for next year.

OPEC crude supply declined by 315 kb/d in November to 30.32 mb/d after Libya’s recovery stumbled, but it stood 765 kb/d than in November 2013. The "call on OPEC crude and stock change" for 2015 was revised down by 300 kb/d to 28.9 mb/d. The "call" is expected to decline seasonally by 1.2 mb/d from this quarter to the first quarter of 2015.

Global refinery crude throughputs bounced back in November from a seasonal low of 76.8 mb/d in October. The estimate of throughputs this quarter has been revised sharply higher since the previous OMR, to 78 mb/d, as refiners apparently took advantage of healthy margins ahead of a flurry of refinery startups expected early next year.

OECD industry stocks built counter-seasonally in October to 2 720 mb, their highest level in more than two years. Stocks ended at a surplus to their five‐year average for the first time since March 2013. Rising crude supply and peak seasonal refinery maintenance saw crude stocks surge by 34.4 mb and product stocks fall by 30.7 mb.

The December OMR also informed subscribers about remaining capacity for OECD storage, recent developments in Chinese stocks, Petrobras' startup of its first new refinery in 34 years, and the finalization of long-debated amendments to Russian oil laws known as the "tax maneuver."

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