STAVANGER, Norway – DNV GL has released several new papers two days into this year’s ONS 2016 conference in Stavanger. Today, the organization released: “Enabling confidence – addressing uncertainty in risk assessments.”
According to DNV GL, the paper describes a risk management approach designed to achieve adequate safety levels while keeping costs under control.
The new approach has been developed in collaboration with the University of Stavanger, Norway, and reflects recent developments in the risk science community. The paper is also said to be aligned with the thinking of the PSA in Norway, ISO 31000, and the Society for Risk Analysis.
Marianne Hauso, Head of Section, Safety Risk Management, DNV GL – Oil & Gas says: “The way we conduct risk assessments must be adapted to the needs of decision makers and the challenges they face at any given time. The purpose of the paper is to explain that uncertainty is an instrumental part of risk, and that assessing and communicating the impact of uncertainty can help clients tackle safety-critical decisions with more confidence. It goes beyond what can be quantified in terms of probabilities and exposes risks hidden in assumptions, giving a fuller risk picture.”
The paper discusses the overall challenge of understanding, interpreting, and disseminating risk results. It explores the meaning of uncertainty in relation to risk and how to incorporate uncertainty as a means to assert appropriate actions. The research advocates an iterative, top-down approach to risk assessment, where the focus is placed on the decision-making situation.
“Some uncertainty is incorporated in the probabilities we assign and risk measures we calculate,” adds Hauso. “But some uncertainty is hidden in assumptions we make during the risk assessment. This is inevitable – and there is nothing wrong with making assumptions – as long as uncertainties associated with those assumptions are acknowledged and their implications on decisions are understood. Through this approach, together with proper risk communication, uncertainty can be translated into confident decisions and improved safety.”
The approach described in the paper is also the basis of a new upcoming DNV GL recommended practice (RP), “Effective update of risk assessments.” This RP will assist operators to maintain an updated risk picture during operations and stop the need for a new, comprehensive risk assessment at regular intervals. The RP will advise on how to identify deviations that matter and to implement appropriate measures to ensure that the risk is under control.
On the conference’s opening day, DNV GL released two papers. One, entitled “A cost-efficient approach to reducing environmental impact,” looks to provide a framework for the industry on how to improve environmental sustainability by identifying the most cost-efficient mitigating measures. To demonstrate how the abatement framework can work in practice, DNV GL has also carried out a case study for an offshore asset.
The second paper, “CO2 abatement potential for offshore upstream installations” demonstrates the results of a comprehensive case study on how CO2 emissions can be reduced through the implementation of a number of cost-effective measures for offshore production on the Norwegian continental shelf.
Elisabeth Tørstad, CEO, DNV GL – Oil & Gas, said: “Cost management is a top priority for the industry right now but it’s still possible to reduce our environmental footprint without breaking budgets. Cost-effective measures can be implemented across the lifecycle of assets and throughout the supply chain. Our papers will advise and support decisions in this critical area. Greater transparency by the industry on environmental risk management processes and sustainability reporting will give the sector much needed credibility and speed up sustainability improvements as a business advantage.”
DNV GL is exhibiting in Hall 7 Stand 760.