PARIS – Having peaked at a five-year high of 1.6 MMb/d in 2015, global oil demand growth is forecast to ease back considerably in 2016 to 1.2 MMb/d, pulled down by notable slowdowns in Europe, China, and the US, according to the International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report for February. Early elements of the projected slowdown surfaced in 4Q 2015.
Global oil supply dropped 0.2 MMb/d to 96.5 MMb/d in January, as higher OPEC output only partly offset lower non-OPEC production. Non-OPEC supplies slipped 0.5 MMb/d from a month earlier to stand close to levels of a year ago. For 2016 as a whole, non-OPEC output is expected to decline by 0.6 MMb/d to 57.1 MMb/d.
OPEC crude oil output rose by 280,000 b/d in January to 32.63 MMb/d as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and a sanctions-free Iran all turned up the taps. Supplies from the group during January stood nearly 1.7 MMb/d higher year-on-year.
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