According to research and consulting firm GlobalData, the project could deliver significant returns for investors.
Its analysis suggests that an FPSO-based development at the field would return above 19.8% in a flat-oil-price scenario of $61.68/bbl.
Anna Belova, GlobalData’s senior upstream analyst, said: “While there is risk around the assumed initial production rates of 20,000/d per development well, there is upside in additional cost efficiencies as low oil prices have been accompanied with decreases in FPSO leasing terms and drillship day rates.
“Additionally, the 201 MMbbl recoverable reserves estimate falls on the lower end of 700 MMbbl of oil reserve suggestions from Guyana’s Minister of Governance.
“Higher reserve scenarios, recovering upward of 600 MMbbl, have an internal rate of return of over 35% while capturing the economies of scale realized with FPSO developments.”
Although cost metrics for the Liza scenarios are consistent with other projects featuring a leased FPSO, economic metrics are more favorable than global averages, the analyst claims, due to the competitiveness of the Guyanese production-sharing agreement regime.
Matthew Jurecky, GlobalData’s head of Oil & Gas Research and Consulting, added: “The Liza project will also be well-placed to benefit from any uplift in oil prices post-development. Its commercial success could redefine the basin as a global deepwater production player.”
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