FAVERSHAM, UK - Douglas-Westwood’s (DW) World Drilling & Production Market Forecast has identified 83 exploration wells drilled offshore Mozambique and Tanzania since Anadarko’s play-opening Windjammer-1 well in the offshore Rovuma basin in 2009.
Many have been in ultra-deepwater (>1,000 m, or 3,281 ft), and the resultant discoveries have lifted the two countries’ combined proven gas reserves from 739 MMboe in 2010, according to the ENI Oil & Gas Outlook, to 29.5 Bboe between 2010 and 2015.
Following Windjammer-1, Anadarko made a further eight commercial discoveries off Mozambique, notably Prosperidade and Golfinho-Atum, both likely to be developed via a subsea-to-shore production system with 31 subsea wells producing to the onshore Afungi LNG facility.
DW expects first gas from this project in 2019, with prospects for a go-ahead better now that from Anadarko has secured non-binding contracts for 80% of its 246,000 boe/d export capacity.
ENI has taken a different approach to developing its Mozambican gas finds, DW points out. To exploit the Coral and Mamba discoveries in water depths of up to 2,300 m (7,546 ft), the company has opted for an FLNG solution.
The analyst expects two FLNG vessels to be operating by 2021, with combined output by this point of around 96,000 boe/d. Development will require 38 ultra-deepwater subsea wells to be drilled over 2018-2021.
If both projects go ahead, Mozambique’s production could soar from71,000 boe/d this year to 469,000 boe/d by 2021.
To the north, off Tanzania, BG Group’s Pweza-1 discovery was quickly followed by gas finds from the Chaza-1 and Chewa-1 wells. These and five subsequent discoveries are now the subject of a development concept study with the preferred option thought to be two TLPs producing to an onshore LNG facility co-owned with Statoil.
Statoil’s own exploration campaign in offshore block 1 has delivered seven finds and 4.2 Bboe in gas reserves. As with Anadarko’s plan, development will likely involve tie-backs to shore. But due to indecision over the site of the onshore LNG plant and uncertainty over Asian LNG demand, DW does not expect either company’s plans to come to fruition until after 2021.
As a result, Tanzania’s production looks set to hover at around 60 kboe/d for the forecast period with only small additions from onshore projects and Orca Exploration’s development on Songo Songo Island.