FAVERSHAM, UK – Analyst Douglas Westwood (DW) predicts oil and gas production from ultra-deepwater fields (>1,000m/3,281 ft) will grow 7.7% during 2015-2021, from 6.5 MMboe/d to 10.2 MMboe/d.
DW’s latest World Drilling & Production Forecast says the growth will come from the drilling of 1,470 ultra-deepwater wells, an increase of 68% over the previous seven years.
At these water depths, the analyst adds, only the most highly productive plays are being targeted. Additionally, deepwater projects typically have funding secured several years ahead of first production.
The main deepwater oil producers – Angola, Brazil, Nigeria, and the US – look set to lead, with the strongest forecast growth (up from 1.2 MMb/d this year to 1.7 MMb/d in 2021).
Gas production could more than double from 1.1 MMboe/d in 2015 to 2.5 MMboe/d in 2021, DW claims. Although much of this growth will come from established producers, ultra-deepwater gas will start being exploited for the first time off Equatorial Guinea and Mozambique, where FLNG vessels are likely to begin operations on ultra-deepwater fields late this decade.
Israel, too, could produce large volumes from various greenfield developments and subsea tiebacks.
DW anticipates global capex of $378 billion over the next seven years on floating production platforms and subsea hardware, with 45% allocated to ultra-deepwater fields.