LONDON – The FPS market will boom from 2013 to 2017, with spending to grow by 18% and installations by 95% from 2008, predicts Infield Systems in its recently released “Floating Production Systems Market Report To 2017.”
This growth in both capex and number of installations is driven by the increase in developments to monetize gas in remote locations, as well as the increasing focus on optimizing production from ultra-deepwater developments.
Africa, Latin America, and Australasia are expected to account for the most significant levels of growth in terms of capex relating to FPS developments.
The deep and ultra-deepwater oil focussed developments in Africa and Latin America combined with the, generally, shallow water, gas focussed developments in Australasia are expected to account for almost 59% of total FPS capex over the period.
Toward the end of the forecast, Infield Systems expects an increase in the number of developments in areas of the world with no prior FPS activity, such as East Africa and the Falklands. Such areas are likely to become increasingly important after 2017, says Infield.
In North America, it is the ultra-deepwater Gulf of Mexico that commands the lion’s share of capex, accounting for 69% of total North American FPS capex.
In the Middle East and Caspian Sea region, capex is split between very shallow developments in Kazakhstan and the Persian Gulf, and developments in the ultra-deep waters of the eastern Mediterranean for Israel.
Australasian capex is almost entirely dominated by Australia, with relatively minor spending outside of this country.
In Europe, the major producers of Norway and the UK are set to command 80% of capex. Countries outside the two major producers in Europe, such as Ireland and Romania, are expected to account for a larger share of capex towards the end of the forecast.
The FPS market in Latin America remains dominated by Petrobras in Brazil.
Africa capex will be directed primarily towards West Africa – of which 71% is likely to be focussed on FPS developments in Angola and Nigeria.
Asia has no overall dominant country with regards to FPS developments, but Malaysia and Indonesia account for the largest market share of spending with 79% of the capex for the region is directed to Southeast Asia.
Looking at FPS developments by water depth shows the increasing dominance of deepwater and ultra-deepwater over the forecast period. Shallow water capex is likely to peak in 2016, whereas ultra-deepwater spending is expected to remain on an upward trajectory during the period to 2017.
Ultra-deepwater capex overtook the deepwater market in 2010 and is not set to be eclipsed by it at any point during the forecast. Despite shallow water capex starting to decline post 2016, it is still expected to represent the largest share of the FPS market, driven by developments globally, but focussed on Asia and Australasia where the waters are not only shallow, but generally located a significant distance from shore.
The ultra-deepwater market is driven by Latin America and North America, while the deepwater market is driven by Africa and Latin America.