Commission clarifies parameters for CHP reference scenario

The European Commission has clarified some changes in its approach to analysing the projected development of the combined heat and power sector within the European Union.

There has been an overhaul of the methodological approach to the EU Reference Scenario 2016, which sees a change being undertaken in the industrial sectors and treatment of industrial boilers and CHP .
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Joan Canton, Economic Analyst at European Commission DG Energy told Decentralized Energy, “While previously the output of industrial boilers and CHP was modelled simultaneously with the power sector, now they are modelled independently allowing better reflection of the characteristics of the specific industrial sectors.”

The new model version now splits the modelling into sub-models covering: (i) boilers and cogeneration for each industrial sector, (ii) district heating including heat extraction from cogeneration and (iii) the rest of the power market. The data for industrial boilers and cogeneration model, as well as the data for the industrial sectors (excluding their consumption for boiler and CHP) have been newly collected and are fully updated.

“Second, in terms of final energy consumption in the industrial sector, Industrial boilers and CHP become more efficient over time, implying that their energy demand reduces slightly while the share of industrial CHP slightly increases in the future, substituting boilers. In addition, the provisions on cogeneration in the Energy Efficiency Directive promote the penetration of highly efficient cogeneration and the use of waste heat for steam generation, industrial boilers and CHP in industrial sites.”

Canton also told Decentralized Energy that there is some positivity for the technology contained in the scenario.

“On the supply side, the share of cogeneration in electricity production, increases throughout the projection period. However, this increase remains modest - 12.6% of electricity produced in 2010 and 13.1% in 2050.”

He added that ETS carbon prices, as well as fossil fuel price projected, can have an impact on the relative competitiveness of CHP plants.

“This increase obviously has an impact on the efficiency of thermal electricity generation, since CHP optimises the combined generation of electricity and heat from the same input fuel. The role of cogeneration in steam and heat supply remains stable at approximately 60% until 2030 and then decreases to 50% in share terms in 2050; however the output remains rather constant over time. Industrial boilers and industrial CHP plants decrease only slightly; due to increasing efficiency, their steam output increases marginally.”

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